Superforecasting

The subtitle for this book is “The Art and Science of Prediction”, and it can perhaps best be thought of as taking the theories of Daniel Kahneman et al. and transliterating them into something towards practical application. Credit to Philip Tetlock for taking a complex subject matter and imbuing this work with real-world application. If there is a major takeaway, then it is simply that we all need to recognise that the world is endlessly complex and ever-changing. Against this background, super forecasters are those that are able to demonstrate the ability (time and again) to incorporate new perspectives into their worldview. It is a call to arms for humility: when the facts change, so do we have to. The work served as a useful reminder of the case for pre-/post-mortems (the consideration of counterfactuals too), as well as the adoption of the “dragonfly” (multiple perspective) view. Even if it clearly does take time and effort to become a super forecaster (in contradiction to what Dominic Cummings may believe), there are lessons we can all learn. As Tetlock notes at the conclusion: “try — feel — analyse — adjust — try again.”

By Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner